College Football Week 4: Heisman Race Takes Shape, National Championship Odds Shift

With three weeks of the 2024 college football season in the books, both the Heisman Trophy race and the battle for a national championship are starting to heat up. Miami’s quarterback, Cam Ward, has vaulted to the top of the Heisman conversation, while Texas’ Arch Manning is emerging as a dark horse. The newly expanded 12-team playoff system has kept more teams in the hunt, giving traditional powerhouses like Alabama renewed hope as we head into Week 4.

Here’s a breakdown of the latest Heisman contenders and a look at key playoff odds.

Cam Ward’s Meteoric Rise

Cam Ward, QB, Miami Hurricanes: +550
Last Week: +800

Cam Ward has made a major statement in his first three games, positioning himself as the Heisman favorite heading into Week 4. Ward’s performance has been nothing short of historic, becoming the first Miami quarterback to open a season with three consecutive 300-yard games. He has already racked up 1,035 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and just one interception while completing 73% of his passes.

Ward’s success is fueling Miami’s rise in the ACC, where they are now the favorites (+125) to win the conference and a solid pick for a College Football Playoff berth (-200). With Ward’s playmaking ability drawing national attention, his Heisman candidacy looks strong, especially if he continues to break school records along the way.

Arch Manning’s Heisman Odds Surge

Arch Manning, QB, Texas Longhorns: +1600
Last Week: 150-1

Arch Manning has burst onto the Heisman radar after stepping in for the injured Quinn Ewers. Manning’s remarkable performance against UTSA—where he passed for 223 yards, threw four touchdowns, and ran for a 67-yard score—catapulted him into the national spotlight.

Manning’s family name already carried significant weight, but his impressive on-field results now have him firmly in the Heisman mix. With Ewers likely sidelined for at least one more game, Manning has a golden opportunity to solidify his case as Texas faces UL Monroe in Week 4. A strong showing could boost both his Heisman odds and the Longhorns’ playoff chances.

Ashton Jeanty’s Breakout Heisman Run

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State Broncos: +2200
Last Week: +3500

Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is another player making noise in the Heisman race. After a bye week, his odds have improved significantly due to a blazing start to the season. Jeanty is currently on pace to challenge Barry Sanders’ legendary 1988 records, having accumulated 459 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in just two games. His eye-popping 10.2 yards per carry makes him a threat in every game.

Jeanty’s path to the Heisman, however, faces historical hurdles. No Group of 5 player has won the award since 1963, but if he can continue his stellar play, especially against tougher competition, Jeanty may continue his rise. Facing Portland State this week gives Jeanty another chance to pad his stats and improve his standing.

National Championship Outlook

The race for the national title is just as intense, with the top three teams—Georgia, Ohio State, and Texas—still holding firm in their quest for the ultimate prize. But some dark horses, like Tennessee, are beginning to show their potential.

Tennessee’s Playoff Prospects
Tennessee has seen its playoff odds shift dramatically over the past week. Previously sitting at +115 to make the playoff, they are now -200 favorites. The swing in odds comes after their dominant performances and a reassessment of their matchups against teams like Alabama and Georgia. With Georgia’s chances of beating Tennessee dropping from 70% to 54%, the Volunteers are more of a threat than ever.

Betting on Tennessee

For those betting on Tennessee’s playoff run, a possible strategy involves waiting until they play Alabama or Georgia as underdogs, then rolling winnings from those games into the next. This approach could offer higher returns than betting on their current playoff odds.

Nebraska’s Sleeper Playoff Push

Nebraska Cornhuskers: +700
Nebraska is another team with quietly growing playoff potential. After a 5-7 record in 2023, the Cornhuskers are looking for positive regression, and with a strong start to the 2024 season, they’ve set themselves up as a dark horse. Key performances include Dylan Raiola’s 70% completion rate through three games, something last accomplished by Heisman winner Marcus Mariota in 2012.

Nebraska’s playoff hopes may hinge on upcoming matchups against Illinois and Indiana, but with an improving defense and veteran leadership, the Cornhuskers have a legitimate shot to surprise many this season.

As we approach Week 4, the college football landscape is as dynamic as ever. The expanded playoff format is creating more opportunities for teams to stay in contention longer, and the Heisman race is just beginning to take shape. Whether it’s Cam Ward’s dominant performances, Arch Manning’s meteoric rise, or dark horses like Ashton Jeanty and Nebraska fighting their way into the conversation, this season promises plenty of excitement.