Breaking Down the 2024 NFL MVP Race: Allen, Jackson, and Barkley in the Spotlight

josh allen vs lions

With just three games left in the 2024 NFL season, the MVP race has hit a fever pitch. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Saquon Barkley have all put together standout campaigns, each with a compelling case for football’s most prestigious individual award. Allen’s jaw-dropping performances in December have solidified his frontrunner status, while Jackson continues to showcase his versatility and dominance. Meanwhile, Barkley’s historic pace has him eyeing a rare feat: breaking the league’s single-season rushing record.

Here’s a deep dive into each contender’s case for the MVP award, analyzing their recent performances, season-long impact, and what they need to do in the final stretch to claim the coveted trophy.

Josh Allen: The Dominant Dual-Threat Leader

Latest Performance:

  • Stats: 23-of-34 for 362 passing yards, 2 passing TDs; 11 carries for 68 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs
  • Result: Bills 48, Lions 42

Allen delivered another MVP-caliber outing in the Bills’ thrilling victory over the Lions, accounting for 430 total yards and four touchdowns. His ability to dominate both in the air and on the ground continues to set him apart. The Bills’ offense racked up a staggering 559 total yards, much of it fueled by Allen’s poise under pressure and knack for extending plays.

Why Allen Leads the MVP Race:
Allen has consistently excelled against high-pressure defenses. The Lions, who have relied heavily on blitzing and man coverage, were no match for Allen’s escapability and precision. He picked apart Detroit’s defense, going 14-of-18 for 202 yards and two touchdowns against man coverage while also adding 134 yards and two scores against blitz packages.

Notably, Allen’s 89.1 QBR under pressure this season is not just the best in the league—it’s the highest recorded in the past 15 years. His ability to avoid negative plays, create first downs, and make explosive plays against the blitz has been unparalleled.

What’s Next:
The Bills are on track for a first-round playoff bye, with Allen’s heroics leading the way. Signature wins against the Chiefs and Lions have bolstered his case, and if he continues his torrid pace through the final three games, it’s hard to see anyone overtaking him.

Lamar Jackson: The Dynamic Playmaker

Latest Performance:

  • Stats: 21-of-25 for 290 passing yards, 5 TDs; 6 carries for 65 rushing yards
  • Result: Ravens 35, Giants 14

Jackson rebounded from a first-drive fumble to lead Baltimore to a decisive win. His five-touchdown performance was the epitome of efficiency, as he posted a season-best 84% completion rate and 11.6 yards per attempt against a Giants defense known for its pass rush.

Why Jackson Stays in the Conversation:
Jackson has evolved into one of the NFL’s most dangerous deep passers. On throws traveling 10 or more yards downfield, Jackson leads the league with a QBR of 95.7, recording 16 touchdowns against just one interception. His consistent ability to make plays from inside and outside the pocket has propelled him to new heights, with career-best marks in passing yards per attempt (8.9) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (34:3).

What’s Holding Him Back:
Despite Jackson’s incredible numbers, the Ravens’ position in the AFC North standings could hurt his MVP bid. Baltimore has been chasing the division-leading Steelers for most of the season, and MVP voters often favor quarterbacks whose teams finish atop their division.

What’s Next:
Jackson faces the Steelers in a critical matchup next week. A dominant performance could boost his MVP stock, especially if the Ravens reclaim the division lead.

Saquon Barkley: The Historic Rushing Campaign

Latest Performance:

  • Stats: 19 carries for 65 rushing yards; 2 catches for 9 receiving yards
  • Result: Eagles 27, Steelers 13

While Barkley’s numbers against the Steelers were modest, his season-long dominance keeps him in the MVP race. He currently leads the league in rushing yards (1,499) and is on pace to challenge Eric Dickerson’s single-season record of 2,105 yards.

Why Barkley’s Case is Unique:
Barkley has been the centerpiece of the Eagles’ 10-game win streak, combining explosive runs with consistency. He leads the league with 461 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) and a 44.2% success rate, proving his efficiency even in tough matchups. With games remaining against some of the league’s worst run defenses, Barkley could further pad his stats and make history.

Challenges to Barkley’s MVP Bid:
The last running back to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012, and voters have historically favored quarterbacks. Barkley will need to break Dickerson’s record—and possibly eclipse 2,200 yards—to overcome this bias. Additionally, his 16 projected touchdowns may not be enough to sway voters compared to past MVP-winning backs like LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander.

What’s Next:
Barkley’s path to MVP runs through a favorable schedule. If he can post massive rushing totals and lead the Eagles to secure the NFC’s top seed, he could make a compelling case as the first running back MVP in over a decade.

Final Thoughts: Who Will Take Home the Trophy?

Josh Allen currently has the inside track, with his recent performances showcasing his dual-threat capabilities and ability to thrive under pressure. However, the race is far from over.

Lamar Jackson could reclaim the spotlight with a dominant stretch run and a Ravens surge to the top of the AFC North. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley has the potential to rewrite history if he breaks the single-season rushing record and powers the Eagles to a top playoff seed.

As the season winds down, the 2024 MVP race promises to deliver drama worthy of the NFL’s biggest stars. All three contenders have a shot, but it’s Allen’s award to lose—unless Jackson or Barkley delivers a season-defining moment in the final weeks.