Breaking Down the First 12-Team College Football Playoff: Projected Bracket and Key Contenders

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The introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) this season brings a significant change, expanding the bracket and guaranteeing a spot for the five highest-ranked conference champions. This new format means teams like Michigan, USC, and LSU are not eliminated simply because of a single loss. Michigan, despite falling to Texas, remains in the mix, as does USC after losing to Michigan, and LSU after their loss to USC.

USC head coach Lincoln Riley, after the Trojans’ defeat in Ann Arbor, emphasized that their season is far from over: “We’re obviously very disappointed,” Riley said, “but we know there’s a lot left in this season.” This expanded playoff format gives teams like Indiana and Illinois a chance to stay relevant, at least for now.

Below is a projection of what the College Football Playoff bracket could look like through the first four weeks of the season, taking into account the committee’s top 12, along with teams on the bubble and how the Group of 5 teams are shaping up after losses by Northern Illinois and Memphis.

Projected 12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket

First-Round Byes

The following seeds are based on the projected top 12 from the CFP committee:

No. 1 Texas Longhorns

The Texas Longhorns are projected as the top seed and SEC champions. This is largely due to Texas’ signature win over Michigan, which gained even more value after Michigan’s victory against USC. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Texas has a 93% chance of making the playoff and the best shot at earning the No. 1 seed with a 27.3% likelihood.

No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State would be the No. 2 seed as Big Ten champions. ESPN Analytics gives the Buckeyes a 48.4% chance to win the Big Ten. Road matchups against Oregon and Penn State will be crucial in defining Ohio State’s playoff hopes.

No. 3 Miami Hurricanes

The Miami Hurricanes, projected ACC champions, saw their playoff chances surge after a win over South Florida. Miami now holds a 69% chance to make the playoff, seventh overall, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

No. 4 Utah Utes

Utah, the projected Big 12 champions, climbed the rankings following a key road win against Oklahoma State and further separation after Kansas State’s blowout loss to BYU. Utah ranks No. 4 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, often aligned with the selection committee’s top teams.

First-Round Matchups (On Campus)

No. 12 Boise State Broncos at No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs

Winner plays: No. 4 Utah

Seeding explanation: Boise State secures the No. 12 seed as the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. This bumps Michigan, despite being ranked 12th, because the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a playoff spot. Georgia, though ranked No. 2, is seeded fifth because the top four spots are reserved for conference champions.

No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 8 Oregon Ducks

Winner plays: No. 1 Texas

Seeding explanation: Alabama and Oregon, both on byes in Week 3, earned key non-conference road wins that boosted their playoff chances. This SEC-Big Ten matchup features two at-large teams that didn’t face each other during the regular season. The winner will face a fresh Texas team coming off a first-round bye.

No. 11 Missouri Tigers at No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers

Winner plays: No. 3 Miami

Seeding explanation: Tennessee, despite being ranked third by the committee, is seeded sixth due to the rules that give conference champions the top four seeds. The Volunteers will still host a first-round matchup against SEC opponent Missouri, a team they did not play during the regular season.

No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels

Winner plays: No. 2 Ohio State

Seeding explanation: Penn State, the third Big Ten team to make the playoff, will face Ole Miss, one of the top SEC teams. If Penn State wins, they could get another shot at Ohio State, depending on how the rest of the season plays out. Penn State and Ohio State are already set to face each other on November 2.

First Four Out

Clemson Tigers

Clemson rebounded from an opening loss to Georgia with two dominant wins, scoring a combined 125 points. ESPN Analytics predicts the Tigers have a 7% chance of winning their remaining nine games, but they need to maintain this form to have a shot at the playoff.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Saturday’s game against Louisville could make or break Notre Dame’s playoff chances. A win could boost their odds to around 50%, while a loss would drop them to 11%. ESPN Analytics marks this as one of the most impactful Week 5 games.

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan remains just outside the playoff bracket in this projection. For the Wolverines to move up, they’ll need more offensive production, particularly in the passing game. ESPN Analytics gives Michigan less than a 50% chance to beat Washington, Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State.

USC Trojans

USC is still in the hunt, but their margin for error is slim after the loss to Michigan. Their path to the playoff likely depends on securing an at-large bid, especially since they have only a 4.1% chance of winning the Big Ten, according to ESPN Analytics.

Next Four Out

  • LSU Tigers
  • Iowa State Cyclones
  • Illinois Fighting Illini
  • Indiana Hoosiers

Group of 5 Power Rankings

  1. Boise State Broncos (Mountain West): Boise State is the Group of 5 team with the best playoff chances at 27%.
  2. UNLV Rebels (Mountain West): UNLV’s road wins over Houston and Kansas have strengthened their playoff case.
  3. James Madison Dukes (Sun Belt): JMU is now second only to Boise State in playoff chances after a major win over North Carolina.
  4. Fresno State Bulldogs (Mountain West): A win against UNLV could propel Fresno State up the rankings.
  5. Liberty Flames (Conference USA): Liberty is favored to win C-USA and has a 10.8% chance to go undefeated.

This projection shows just how impactful the 12-team playoff format will be, giving more teams a legitimate shot at the title even after a tough loss.